According to relevant data, since 2011, the scale of iron ore imports in China has been stable at a relatively high level. In October, there was a short-term sharp decline, which was 17.5%, but it has risen rapidly since then. The import volume in November is 64.20 million tons, a significant increase of 28.6% from the previous month; at the same time, the import price of iron ore ended the previous high of more than 170 US dollars per ton maintained for four consecutive months, and the import price in November fell to 162.1 US dollars per ton, down 7.6 points from the previous month. %, the decline was significantly deeper than last month.
The lack of demand is why the import price will drop significantly in November? Domestic crude steel production continued to fall in November, and demand was sluggish. According to the statistics of China Steel Association on November 28, the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in the country in mid-November was 1.484 million tons, down 1.4% from the previous month. It is estimated that the national average daily crude steel output is 1,663,700 tons, significantly lower than 10 The monthly output of 2.1 million tons was the lowest in the year, and the domestic steel demand was significantly reduced. At the same time, affected by the European debt crisis, important steel mills in Europe announced production cuts. At the end of October, ArcelorMittal closed some blast furnaces and electric furnaces in Europe. ThyssenKrupp announced that it will cut its position in Europe in the fourth quarter. The steel output is 500,000 tons. In addition, the steady growth of global iron ore output is an important reason for the significant decline in China's iron ore import prices in November. In 2011, the global mining investment boom project initiated by the financial crisis began to enter the production period. The release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in iron ore production. In addition to Rio Tinto, the iron ore production reached a record high. In the third quarter of this year, the four major mines produced a total of 177 million tons of iron ore, up 11.2% year-on-year and 9.6% quarter-on-quarter, of which freshwater valley production was 87.9 million tons, up 10% year-on-year and 13.5% quarter-on-quarter; Rio Tinto 49.83 million tons. , an increase of 4.7% year-on-year and a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase, which is the second highest in the fourth quarter of 2010. The output of BHP Billiton is 39.57 million tons, up 23.7% year-on-year and 11.4% quarter-on-quarter; FMG is 1584. Ten thousand tons, a substantial increase of 62.5% year on year, an increase of 27.7%. It is worth noting that the downstream industry is generally weak and it is difficult to drive demand for steel. According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on November 14, the shipbuilding industry in China only received 940,000 DWT in September, which is the lowest monthly value since June 2009. The steel industry demand for shipbuilding industry has decreased. At the same time, domestic real estate regulation has begun to see According to the latest data from the central bank, in the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of mortgage loans dropped significantly. RMB real estate loans increased by 74.43 billion yuan year-on-year. The demand for real estate was also weak, which also required steel demand. Not only that, but the railways were difficult to finance. At present, the shutdown project has reached more than 90% of the railway projects under construction, which has also affected the demand for domestic steel.
The pricing mechanism close to the spot trading statistics shows that due to the recent sluggish demand for iron ore, the impact of the reverse relationship between market supply and demand, spot mine prices fell sharply, BHP Billiton actively lowered the price of iron ore, Vale was forced to follow the price cut, the fourth quarter offer From $175 per ton to $160, the executive director of the Iron Ore Department said it is negotiating with Chinese customers on a case-by-case basis, possibly taking measures based on actual average pricing to replace the quarterly pricing model adopted since April 2010. The meager profit of steel companies is also worthy of attention. According to the latest statistics of China Steel Association, 25 out of 77 large and medium-sized steel enterprises in October suffered losses. The industry's sales profit margin was only 0.47%, and the profit was only 1.375 billion yuan, down 82.6% from the previous month. Most steel enterprises were under the cost line. Loss of business.
Strengthen control over foreign mining companies shipping is reported that foreign mining companies to strengthen control over shipping, pricing right to speak will be further strengthened. Vale recently announced that it will launch an iron ore transshipment center in Subic Bay, Central Philippines, which is intended to control the maritime market and reduce the cost of iron ore transportation. On the Brazilian-Chinese iron ore route, this pair of China The ship (600150) company will have a huge impact. Since 2008, the three giants have continuously increased the scale of self-built fleets, especially in the Vale. Last year, the self-owned fleet built by Vale has invested a total of 9.3 billion US dollars. Currently, the existing capacity of Vale is 22 Nearly 5 million DWT, plus the capacity controlled by purchase, new construction and leasing, as of 2013, it will control 80 dry bulk cargo capacity and orders of more than 25 million DWT, including nearly 40 400,000 tons. Grade ore carriers, which will seriously weaken the market competitiveness of the existing 230,000-ton and 300,000-ton-class ore carriers of domestic shipping companies. To this end, the Customs proposes: First, continue to strengthen the monitoring of iron ore import volume price trends, timely release early warning information, and guide enterprises to rationally grasp the import rhythm; second, encourage enterprises to establish overseas iron ore supply bases and expand emerging import sources. To enhance the control of upstream resources; thirdly, to assess the impact of domestic iron ore price index in a timely manner, and strive to increase the influence of domestic indices in the international market, and strive for China's right to speak and pricing in the iron ore market; Reasonably guide the merger and reorganization of domestic steel enterprises, strengthen the monitoring and assessment of environmental protection indicators of steel enterprises, and build green steel enterprises.
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