Premier Li Keqiang spoilers: There have been many positive changes in the economy in the third quarter.

On October 11, at the Fifth Ministerial Meeting of the China-Portuguese-Speaking Countries Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum held in Macao, Premier Li Keqiang interpreted the current economic situation in China and also on various aspects of China's debt risk and real estate market. Respond to the concerns.
It is worth noting that the reporter of "Daily Economic News" learned that the main economic data in the third quarter is expected to be announced on October 19, and Premier Li Keqiang said that he had "spoiled" in advance.
He said that since the beginning of this year, China's overall economy has been better than expected, especially in the third quarter, which not only continued the development momentum of the first half of the year, but also showed many positive changes. The contribution rate of consumption and service industry to economic growth has steadily increased.
A statistical department professional also told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that "the data in September is expected to continue in August as a whole, and the September index is likely to be flat with August. Overall, the economic growth in the third quarter is better than that in August. Second quarter."

Total debt controllable
It is worth mentioning that the Ministry of Finance data shows that in August this year, the national general public budget revenue increased by 1.7% year-on-year, while the national general public budget expenditure increased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure was much larger than income. In addition, among the major national fiscal expenditure items, the debt service interest in August was 325.2 billion yuan, an increase of 37.2%.
In this regard, Ding Shuang, chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank Greater China, told the Daily Economic News: "The growth rate of expenditure far exceeds the growth rate of income is a signal of positive fiscal policy. It is expected that China's fiscal deficit will exceed the budget this year. ."
The IMF's recent World Economic Outlook report pointed out that China's debt is growing at a "risk speed", and IMF President Lagarde recently expressed concern about the expansion of Chinese government debt.
In response to the debt problem, on October 11, Li Keqiang said in Macau that China’s debt risk is generally controllable. The debt ratio of the Chinese government is relatively low among the world’s major economies, and China’s debt is mainly domestic debt, and external debt. The proportion is small and the possibility of debt risk is relatively small.
Li Keqiang pointed out that the problem encountered now is mainly that the debt structure is not balanced, the central government debt ratio is only 16%, and the local government debt ratio is higher than the central government. A Ministry of Finance official also told the Daily Economic News reporter that "the current national government debt ratio is around 40%. Effective prevention of local government debt risk is one of the main tasks of the Ministry of Finance."
However, Li Keqiang also pointed out that local government borrowing is increasingly standardized, debt is mainly used for construction rather than welfare, and most of them are asset-based debt with a return mechanism.
The reporter noted that some local governments have begun to set limits on government debt. For example, on October 10, the General Office of the Chongqing Municipal Government publicly issued the Notice on Strengthening Local Government Debt Management, and proposed restrictive measures to strengthen debt management.
In addition, on October 7 this year, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said at the G20 Washington Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting that “the measures are being taken to block informal debt issuance channels and regulate bond issuance.”
In addition, Li Keqiang said that China's current non-financial companies are relatively high in leverage. At present, China's monetary policy is sound, liquidity is reasonably sufficient, commercial banks have high capital adequacy ratios and provision coverage ratios, and our ability to compensate and absorb losses is relatively strong.
In the next step, China will gradually reduce the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and reduce financial risks by developing multi-level capital markets, increasing the proportion of direct financing, and promoting mergers and acquisitions.

China's economy as a whole is better than expected
The "Daily Economic News" reporter noted that in addition to the government debt problem, the recent real estate market has also received special attention.
Yesterday, Li Keqiang also said at the meeting: "In view of the current differentiation of China's real estate market, we will strengthen, and we are also strengthening the main responsibility of local governments, because of the city's local policy, to protect the basic housing needs of residents, and strive to achieve living Living in."
It is worth noting that during the National Day holiday this year, many cities across the country tightened their purchase policies, and the fiery real estate suddenly showed signs of “cat winter”. These areas of the regulation and control of the big move include both first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, as well as second- and third-tier cities such as Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Jinan, Wuxi, Hefei and Foshan.
For the prospect of the future real estate market, Li Keqiang said that China's new urbanization will undergo a long process in the future, and housing demand will show a growth trend. Measures to meet the national conditions and city characteristics should be adopted to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
In addition, the "Daily Economic News" reporter learned that on October 19, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the economic performance of the third quarter of this year.
In addition to expressing China's determination to hold the bottom line of non-systematic and regional financial risks, Li Keqiang also expressed confidence in the economic operation in the third quarter.
Li Keqiang further stated that “in the third quarter, the Chinese economy not only continued the development momentum of the first half of the year, but also showed many positive changes. The contribution rate of consumption and service industries to economic growth has steadily increased, and some important indicators of weakness or decline in the previous period. Stable and good. Among them, industrial growth, corporate efficiency, investment stabilized and rebounded, especially private investment stopped falling and stabilized, and social expectations were improved."
Li Keqiang said, "Overall, China’s economic operation this year, especially in the third quarter, is better than expected. Especially in employment, the number of new jobs in urban areas in the first nine months of this year exceeded 10 million, keeping new in the past three years. The employment increase exceeded 13 million. In September, the unemployment rate surveyed by 31 cities in our big cities showed that the unemployment rate was less than 5%, which is the first time in recent years."
The reporter noted that the July and August economic data and some September data that have been announced have also confirmed the judgment of the Prime Minister to a certain extent. For example, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed that the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.4% in September, unchanged from the previous month and has been above the critical point for two consecutive months.
Zhou Jingwei, director of macroeconomics and policy research at the Bank of China International Finance Institute, told the Daily Economic News: "In the third quarter, China's economic operation was generally stable, and external demand picked up, which eased the downward pressure on exports. At the same time, investment, consumption, Major economic indicators such as industrial production and power generation have shown signs of stabilization."
Zhou Jingyu further stated that “especially private investment has also changed the downward trend, with a 2.3% increase in August, which is an important signal for economic stability.”

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